Gas Prices Ease, While Iran War Keeps Energy Markets Volatile

Silhouette of a hand holding a fuel nozzle at a gas station

President Trump is promising Americans that gas prices will “come tumbling down” — but his own Energy Secretary has already walked back the timeline, leaving drivers wondering when, or whether, relief is actually coming.

Story Snapshot

Trump predicted gas prices would drop sharply once the Iran war ends, calling for “a very big decrease” at the pump.
The White House points to real progress: gasoline prices fell roughly 6 percent in Trump’s first year, nearing four-year lows by late 2025.
Energy Secretary Chris Wright walked back earlier predictions that gas would fall below $3 a gallon before summer 2026.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration forecasts an additional 18-cent-per-gallon decrease in 2026, and American drivers are projected to spend $11 billion less on gas this year.

Trump’s Promise: Prices Drop When the Iran War Ends

President Trump has tied his gas price forecast directly to the ongoing conflict with Iran. Speaking publicly, Trump predicted prices would “come tumbling down” and expected “a very big decrease” at the pump — but only once the Iran war is resolved. That framing makes the timeline contingent on a geopolitical outcome rather than a domestic policy lever, which means the prediction could be delayed by events entirely outside the administration’s control.

While the war continues, the American Automobile Association reported the national average surging past $4.39 per gallon at one point, up nine cents in a single day. Trump acknowledged that he knew oil and gas prices would rise during the conflict — a candid admission that undercuts earlier campaign-trail promises of fast, dramatic relief. The administration’s position has shifted from bold near-term guarantees to a more conditional “when the war ends” framing.

Real Progress Already Made Under Trump’s Energy Agenda

To be fair, the Trump administration’s energy agenda has produced measurable results. Since Trump took office in January 2025, gasoline prices declined roughly 6 percent, averaging $3.02 per gallon by the end of December 2025. The White House released data showing that AAA projected the national average was on track to dip below $3 per gallon for the first time since 2021 — a benchmark not seen during the Biden years of inflation and energy restriction.

The Department of Energy reported that American drivers are expected to spend $11 billion less on gas at the pump in 2026 compared to recent years, translating to an average household expenditure of $2,083 on gasoline — a meaningful reduction for working families still recovering from Biden-era inflation. The Energy Information Administration separately forecast an additional decrease of roughly 18 cents per gallon, or about 6 percent, in 2026 — projections that align with the administration’s broader “energy dominance” strategy of expanding domestic production.

Energy Secretary Steps Back from the $3 Gallon Prediction

Energy Secretary Chris Wright had previously suggested gas could fall below $3 a gallon before summer 2026 — a headline-grabbing target that energized conservative supporters. However, Wright has since walked back that specific prediction, publicly stating he cannot predict the price of gasoline. That reversal, reported by Mother Jones, gives critics ammunition to argue the administration overpromised on a timeline it could not fully control given global crude markets and the ongoing Iran conflict.

Trump administration officials also softened predictions about an end to the Iran war and its turbulent effects on energy prices, according to Politico. The broader reality is that retail gasoline prices are driven by global crude markets, refining margins, seasonal demand, and geopolitics — forces no single administration fully controls. Fortune reported that gasoline costs in the U.S. for 2026 could average around $3.34 per gallon, based on Energy Information Administration projections, meaning the sub-$3 target remains elusive for now. That said, $3.34 is still a far cry from the inflation-era pain Americans endured under the previous administration’s war on fossil fuels. The trajectory is moving in the right direction — the pace is what remains in question.