A new Politico-Citrin Center-Possibility Lab poll shows that a strong majority of Californians oppose Governor Newsom’s effort to shift redistricting authority from the independent commission to the Legislature—even temporarily.
At a Glance
- Sixty-four percent of California voters support maintaining the independent redistricting commission; only 36 percent favor legislative control.
- Support is robust across party lines—independents back the commission at 72 percent.
- Newsom’s proposed constitutional amendment would allow temporary legislative maps for 2026, 2028, and 2030 if triggered by similar actions in Texas.
- Internal polling suggests a narrow majority (52 percent) may favor the proposal when framed in partisan terms, though skepticism persists.
- Even among Democratic policy elites, 61 percent oppose legislative redistricting; only a narrow majority of insiders support Newsom’s plan.
Resistance Amid Strategic Pressure
Governor Gavin Newsom is advocating for a mid-decade redistricting measure to counter Republican efforts—particularly from Texas—to redraw maps for partisan advantage. His proposal aims to place a constitutional amendment on the November ballot that would temporarily return map-drawing power to the Legislature, with safeguards to revert authority back to the independent commission post-2030.
Watch now: Newsom to unveil California redistricting plan · YouTube
Despite Newsom’s framing—casting his move as a defensive, partisan strategy to offset Texas Republicans—polling indicates deep public reluctance. A commanding 64 percent of voters prefer the independent Citizens Redistricting Commission (CCRC), with cross-partisan support strongest among independents (72 percent).
Internal campaign polling shows the proposal may gain modest traction when presented in political terms, with 52 percent support. However, broader skepticism persists even among policy insiders; 61 percent oppose legislative map control, and only a slim majority of Democratic insiders support the plan.
Upholding Reform in the Face of Partisan Pushback
California’s independent commission, created through Proposition 11 in 2008 and expanded via Proposition 20 in 2010, has governed redistricting based on transparency and citizen input—overseen by a bipartisan panel with strict eligibility rules.
Changing this system requires a constitutional amendment—a path fraught with political and legal hurdles. Newsom must secure a supermajority in the Legislature and voter approval. Legal constraints, looming deadlines, and resistance from key figures—including former Governor Schwarzenegger and reform advocates—add complexity to the proposal’s viability.
Outlook: Public Trust vs. Political Strategy
The poll underscores a central tension: Newsom’s strategic response to GOP gerrymandering risks undercutting public confidence in the reform-era institution of the commission. Even with partisan messaging, the current data show considerable obstacles ahead—both at the ballot and among Democratic policymakers.
