Odds That Haley Will Beat Trump After Primary Win

Former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley made a significant breakthrough in the Republican primary cycle by defeating former President Donald Trump. This unexpected victory has sparked intrigue and speculation about the potential impact on upcoming elections. While several recent polls suggest that Haley’s win in Washington, D.C., may have little effect, her campaign remains hopeful that it will generate momentum leading up to Super Tuesday on March 5.

With a 62.8 percent to 33.2 percent victory over Trump, Haley became the first woman to win a GOP presidential primary. In a tweet, Haley expressed her belief that Trump’s tenure has brought chaos and division to Washington, and it’s time for Republicans to start winning again and move the nation forward.

Trump, on the other hand, seems undeterred by this setback. Despite Haley’s win, he remains on track to secure the Republican nomination, as evidenced by recent victories in Michigan, Idaho, and Missouri. In a Truth Social post, Trump dismissed the significance of the D.C. primary, citing the lack of delegates and political upside as reasons for his absence.

He also highlighted his substantial victories over the weekend and expressed confidence that Super Tuesday would bring even more significant numbers. Trump’s post concluded with a characteristic jab at his opponent, calling her “Birdbrain.”

However, it is worth noting that Haley’s delegate count from the D.C. primary was relatively low, with only 19 out of the required 1,215 delegates. These results further emphasize her uphill battle in her quest for the nomination.

According to FiveThirtyEight’s national polling average of the Republican primary, Trump continues to dominate with approximately 76.7 percent of GOP support. In contrast, Haley lags far behind at 15.1 percent. Additional polls conducted before the Washington, D.C., primary also show Trump leading Haley by significant margins. For instance, The New York Times/Siena College poll, conducted between February 25 and 28, gives Trump a commanding 57-point lead.

In a similar vein, a survey by HarrisX/Forbes carried out from February 24 to 28 reveals that Trump is ahead by 67 points. Meanwhile, polling by YouGov/The Economist between February 25 and 27 shows Trump leading by 68 points. Additionally, a poll conducted by Morning Consult from February 23 to 25 also shows Trump in the lead, this time by 63 points.

In terms of specific states, an Emerson College poll published on February 29 reveals Trump’s 58-point advantage in Texas, while California also leans heavily in his favor with a 58-point lead, according to a survey by the University of Texas at Tyler.