Much of the attention of the 2024 election is naturally on the presidential race.
Yet, the control of the House of Representatives will once again be on the table next year, and Democrats are looking to a familiar state that could swing the outcome one way or the other.
Very quickly, New York is being looked at as a battleground state that will be critical to Democrats if they want to wrest control of the House back from Republicans. Multiple Democratic candidates have already launched their bids to recapture seats that Republicans hold in the state, while party members are already dedicating millions of dollars to back their campaigns in the state.
One of the main reasons why Republicans were able to obtain their current slim majority in the House during the 2022 midterm elections was that they were able to flip several districts in New York.
Now, Democrats are hoping to be able to do the exact same thing but in reverse during the 2024 elections.
Liberal candidates are hopeful that if former President Donald Trump were to win the GOP nomination for president – as is widely expected – they will be able to use that to their advantage to flip districts that are traditionally red-leaning.
Jon Reinish, who once served as an aide to New York Democratic Senator Kirsten Gillibrand, commented to media outlet The Hill:
“Obviously, Donald Trump at the top of the ticket, which is looking increasingly likely, is terrible for New York Republicans.”
During last November’s midterms, New York proved to be one of the most successful states for the GOP. Conservatives flipped many seats in the state, including that of Sean Patrick Maloney, who at the time was serving as the campaign arm for House Democrats’ chairman.
Republican candidates focused heavily on issues such as the economy and crime as they were pitching themselves to voters in the state. They also benefited from higher-than-normal GOP turnout in the state thanks to Republican Lee Zeldin running for governor.
Zeldin was seen as a strong contender, but ultimately dropped the race by about six points to current Democratic Governor Kathy Hochul.
Those seats that Democrats lost in 2022 are now the focus for the party in 2024. Many districts in New York that are currently represented by people such as Marc Molinaro, Mike Lawler, Anthony D’Esposito and George Santos are the main targets of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.
Other Republican representatives from New York who are likely to be targets for Democrats are Brandon Williams and Nick LaLota. Williams only won his seat in 2022 by about one percentage point.
Last week, the campaign arm for House Democrats released a new ad campaign in the Empire State that targeted Molinaro, Lawler, D’Esposito and LaLota. All four of those GOP representatives have called on Santos to step down from his position on the House due to the many scandals and crimes he’s been accused of.
