The Biden administration and European officials are shifting their strategy for Ukraine, focusing on strengthening Ukraine’s position at the negotiating table rather than achieving a total victory over Putin’s invading forces. This shift comes as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s counteroffensive has stalled, and securing additional aid from the United States and Europe is becoming more challenging.
The updated strategy enhances Ukraine’s defensive structures in the east, incorporating air defense mechanisms and additional fortifications along the eastern frontier and the northern boundary with Belarus. This aims to place Ukraine in a more fortified stance for when discussions to conclude the almost two-year conflict eventually take place.
The Biden administration has consistently believed that this war will end only through negotiation. They want Ukraine to have the most substantial hand possible during these negotiations. However, the White House and the Pentagon publicly deny any policy change and maintain their support for Ukraine’s goal of pushing Russian armies out of the country entirely.
While the United States remains focused on assisting Ukraine both offensively and defensively, the National Security Council has warned that its ability to provide further military assistance is ending. The Biden administration still supports Ukraine but acknowledges that practical constraints will limit their support.
President Biden has shifted his rhetoric from promising support for Ukraine for “as long as it takes” to support the country for “as long as we can.” He has also acknowledged Ukraine’s significant victory in halting Putin’s plans. Experts believe this indicates that Ukraine may have to settle for a cease-fire with Moscow, potentially leading to a division of the country.
Some experts argue that adopting a defensive posture would allow Ukraine to conserve resources while making future Russian progress less likely. They believe that time is working against Ukraine regarding manpower and industrial capacity, and the longer the conflict continues, the more concessions Ukraine may have to make to bring Russia to the negotiating table.
There are also suggestions that the European Union may expedite Ukraine’s membership in NATO, improving Ukraine’s negotiating position despite the military stalemate. However, this move would likely anger Putin, who viewed Ukraine’s desire to join NATO as one of the reasons for his invasion.
President Biden continues to support Ukraine’s entry into NATO, but the Biden administration remains skeptical of reports that Putin may be willing to compromise. The spokesperson for the administration stated that there have been no serious discussions on the matter yet, and Putin has not shown any indication of entertaining good-faith negotiations.
